Aswath Damodaran values Anthropic at $1.475 trillion ahead of its IPO
NYU professor Aswath Damodaran's base-case value for the Claude maker sits just below the reported $1.5–2 trillion IPO range.
Valuation expert Aswath Damodaran has put the equity value of Anthropic, the company behind the Claude AI models, at $1.475 trillion. That is just below the $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion range widely reported for the company’s planned initial public offering.
In his base case, Damodaran assumes Anthropic’s revenue reaches $1 trillion by 2036, with a target operating margin of 27.5% after allowing for regulatory costs, and a cost of capital of 9.74%.
His scenarios show how uncertain the number is. In a pessimistic case, with revenue of only $200 billion by 2036, lower margins and expensive computing power, the equity value turns negative at about −$373 billion. In an optimistic case, with $1.5 trillion in revenue, 40% margins and cheaper computing, it rises to $4.04 trillion.
Damodaran highlighted Anthropic’s large future commitments to buy computing capacity, running into hundreds of billions of dollars, and noted the company has a BB+ bond rating. He also questioned whether business customers will stay with Claude after integrating it.
According to Anthropic’s prospectus, revenue in the first half of 2026 was about 14 times the year-earlier level, though growth slowed in the third quarter.
Key numbers
- Base-case equity value: $1.475 trillion
- Reported IPO range: $1.5–2 trillion
- Scenario range: −$373 billion to $4.04 trillion
This article is a summary for information only and is not investment advice. Figures are as reported by the sources above; please verify with the original filing or report before making any decision.